How Has the BTC Futures Landscape Shifted After COVID-19 & Bitcoin Halving !

 

Bitcoin futures trading has grown significantly on some exchanges. Has this occurred at the expense of others?

  

The coronavirus has caused epic reorganizations in every corner of the global economy. This is also true in the cryptocurrency futures market.

 

In fact, today, the Bitcoin derivatives space looks quite different than it did several months ago; the kinds of contracts that are being traded most commonly are shifting, as well as the platforms that are being most commonly used for trading them.

Much of these changes can be attributed to the economic fallout and BTC price volatility caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus. However, the Bitcoin futures market has also been affected by the Bitcoin halving event that took place earlier this month.

Now that the world is three months into the post-corona era, and the Bitcoin space is two weeks past its most recent halving, how exactly has the Bitcoin derivatives landscape shifted? Has the growth that has occurred on some exchanges–for example, Binance Futures, Huobi Futures, and OKEx–been at the expense of other exchanges, such as BitMEX? And how has price volatility affected the crypto derivatives space more generally?

Price volatility has been a positive thing for crypto derivatives

Ciara Sun, Head of Global Markets at Global Huobi Group, told Finance Magnates that at a basic level, the price volatility that has been brought about by the coronavirus, as well as the Bitcoin halving, has been good for the cryptocurrency derivatives space.

Ciara Sun, Head of Global Markets at Global Huobi Group.

Indeed, “the current economic fallout is driving volatility in both traditional and crypto markets, creating a favorable environment for crypto derivative products to thrive,” Sun said.

“Volatility is a very natural part of market cycles and derivative products like futures contracts and perpetual swaps allow traders to leverage this volatility to create arbitrage opportunities,” she continued.

“Moreover, the current economic climate has revealed digital assets as viable alternatives to traditional currencies as governments and central banks print record sums of new fiat currencies to stave off recession. As such, we’ll see more crypto derivative trading activity through 2020 and beyond, particularly in the institutional sector.”

“We’re already seeing a surge in derivatives trading volume.”

On a number of cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges, this surge in activity has already begun to materialize: for Huobi Futures, Ciara Sun said that “we’re already seeing a surge in derivatives trading volume.”

“In the first quarter of 2020, derivatives trading volume on Huobi Futures reached $438 billion, accounting for 22% of the total market trading volume. And on May 12, the 24-hour coin-margined perpetual swap trading volume on Huobi Futures reached $5.47 billion.”

CME also saw a massive surge in open interest levels for its Bitcoin futures contracts, with a new all-time high of just under $500 million on Friday, May 8. At the time, CoinDesk reported that “CME’s bitcoin futures market has grown faster than nearly every other bitcoin futures market on a percentage and real growth basis.”

There were also surges on several other Bitcoin futures trading platforms, including Binance Futures. In an interview with Finance Magnates, Binance Futures VP Aaron Gong said that his exchange made it to the top of the volume charts “shortly after March 12–’Black Thursday’.”

Although it has since traded places with several other exchanges competing for the top spot since then, “we’re seeing steady growth–the momentum is strong, and still there.”

More institutional interest seems to have materialized on BitMEX, but part of the activity also seems to have been a reorganization of users across exchanges

What has caused this surge of activity?

For one thing, it seems that the increased volatility in the price of Bitcoin after the coronavirus–as well as the attention and press that Bitcoin got around the halving event earlier this month–seems to have attracted quite a bit of institutional attention to the Bitcoin futures space.

For example, CoinDesk reported earlier this month that “prominent American hedge funds are interested in investing in bitcoin futures.” Specifically, news broke in April that Renaissance Technology’s flagship Medallion fund was considering trading bitcoin futures on CME; additionally, in May, Paul Tudor Jones II of the Tudor Investment Corp., told investors he was interested in investing in bitcoin futures.

However, some of the growth on some futures exchanges may be happening at the expense of others: specifically, there seems to have been a migration from former BitMEX users to other futures exchanges.

This shift seems to have begun on and immediately after March 12, also known as crypto’s ‘Black Thursday,’ when the price of Bitcoin–and the cryptocurrency markets more generally–suddenly shed billions. Within a 24-hour period, the price of Bitcoin dove from roughly $7,600 to approximately $4,700; as Bitcoin’s price was dropping, BitMEX experienced a sudden service outage in the early hours of March 13.

According to CoinMetrics, Bitcoin’s price drop was effectively stopped by the outage as a sort of ‘de facto’ circuit breaker; originally, the outage was thought to have been an infrastructural failure. However, it was later revealed that the outage was the result of a DDoS (distributed denial of service) attack against BitMEX.

Indeed, “on March 13, during the second downward price movement at 2:16 AM UTC, trading on BitMEX slowed to a crawl as the exchange faced what was first thought to be a hardware issue, but was later determined to be an intentional DDOS attack,” CoinMetrics’ post-mortem of the attack reads. “This made it nearly impossible to trade on BitMEX.”

A reorganization of users on derivatives exchanges has brought Binance, Huobi, and OKEx futures’ exchanges to the top–perhaps at BitMEX’ expense

Still, in spite of the fact that the outage was not a failure of BitMEX’s infrastructure, the event seems to have indeed been the primary cause of a migration away from the exchange.

Users seem to have moved away from BitMex and onto other cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges–primarily, Binance Futures, Huobi Futures, and OKEx; the three have traded places as the top futures exchange by volume ever since; open interest on BitMEX has slowly been on a trend towards recovery.

BTC Open Interest on BitMEX; Source: BTCtools.io 

 

Reports that BitMEX may have been losing its market share to other futures exchanges first emerged in the weeks following Black Thursday and the DDoS attack on the following day; CoinTelegraph reported in Mid-April that BitMEX was “bleeding Bitcoins”: that on “March 13, BitMex held 306,814 Bitcoins (BTC), by April 9, this number had dropped to 222,025.”